Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ALVARO-24 in Madagascar from 31 Dec 2023 12:00 UTC to 01 Jan 2024 22:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ALVARO-24

in Madagascar

01 Jan 2024 22 UTC

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Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ALVARO-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	127 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (01 Jan 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)
Landfall	between 01 Jan 2024 16:00 - 01 Jan 2024 22:00 in Madagascar

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	106 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	127 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on WMO/RSMC La Réunion - Meteo France impact

Joint Pilot Activity: EC-JRC,WMO/RSMC La Réunion-Meteo France

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Wind

106 km/h Current Max.

Up to 6.1 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	63	No people	No people
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	74	No people	No people
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	84	No people	No people
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	84	280 thousand	No people	Madagascar
5	01 Jan 2024 10:00	106	7.4 million	No people	Madagascar
6	01 Jan 2024 16:00	127	970 thousand	No people	Madagascar
7	01 Jan 2024 22:00	106	6.1 million	No people	Madagascar

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Category (WMO/RSMC) **	Max winds (km/h) (WMO/RSMC)	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Dec 2023 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-20.1, 38.3
2	31 Dec 2023 16:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-20.4, 39
3	31 Dec 2023 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.7, 39.9
4	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	280000 people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-20.9, 40.6
5	01 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	1.7 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-21.3, 41.6
6	01 Jan 2024 16:00	Category 1	127	no people	580000 people	Severe Tropical Storm	111	-21.4, 42.7
7	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	106	no people	2.6 million people	Severe Tropical Storm	93	-21.3, 43.9	Madagascar
7	02 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	4.2 million people	Overland Depression	56	-21.5, 45.6	Madagascar
7	02 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	3.5 million people	Overland Depression	46	-21.6, 47.7	Madagascar
7	03 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1.4 million people	Moderate Tropical Storm	65	-22, 49.3
7	03 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical storm	84	no people	no people	Moderate Tropical Storm	74	-23.1, 51
7	04 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical storm	63	no people	no people	Tropical Depression	56	-24.3, 52.9
7	04 Jan 2024 22:00	Tropical depression	53	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	46	-25.2, 54.7
7	05 Jan 2024 10:00	Tropical depression	42	no people	no people	Tropical Disturbance	37	-26.2, 57

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Madagascar	6.1 million people

Provinces

Region Province	Country	Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
Toliara	Madagascar	1.8 million people
Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	4.3 million people

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Ambohibe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Manja	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Morombe	Toliara	Madagascar	City	-
Ankazoabo	Toliara	Madagascar	City	26000 people
Tulear	Toliara	Madagascar	Major city	-
Ihosy	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	17000 people
Fianarantsoa	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	160000 people
Ambositra	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	30000 people
Sahasinaka	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	-
Manakara	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	35000 people
Farafangana	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	25000 people
Mananjary	Fianarantsoa	Madagascar	City	27000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Tanandava	TDV	27	Civ.	Unpaved	No	4500
Manja	MJA	240	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5200
Morombe	MXM	5	Civ.	Paved	No	4200
Mandabe	WMD	290	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Ankazoabo	WAK	430	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3500
Morondava	MOQ	7	Civ.	Paved	No	4900
Beroroha	WBO	250	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3100
Belo Sur Tsiribihina	BMD	47	Civ.	Paved	No	4400
Malaimbandy	WML	182	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3900
Toliara	TLE	8	Civ.	Paved	No	6500
Ambatolahy	AHY	unknown				0
Ihosy	IHO	762	Civ.	Unpaved	No	5400
Ambalavao		972	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3600
Fianarantsoa	WFI	1115	Civ.	Paved	No	4100
Farafangana	RVA	8	Civ.	Unpaved	No	3400
Manakara Sud	WVK	10	Civ.	Paved	No	3900
Mananjary	MNJ	6	Civ.	Paved	No	4900

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Antongo		Madagascar
Morombe	MGMXM	Madagascar
Belo Sur Mer		Madagascar
Morondava	MGMOQ	Madagascar
Manombo	MGMOB	Madagascar
Toliara	MGTLE	Madagascar
Manakara	MGWVK	Madagascar
Farafangana	MGRVA	Madagascar
Mananjary	MGMNJ	Madagascar

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Maconharumo, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 01 Jan 2024 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (111 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 6 of 01 Jan 2024 16:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 6 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 02:00	Amado	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Ankoba	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Antseranandaka	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Mite	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Ambohibe	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Andranopasy	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Panaca	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Bekoropoka	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Chimuaza	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Vila do Chinde	Mozambique	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Manahy	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 22:00	Ankelifolo	Madagascar	0.3
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Belailay	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 04:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 03:00	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Ocone	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 21:00	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 20:00	Andanivato	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 20:00	Ambatojoby	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 20:00	Andramy	Madagascar	0.2
	03 Jan 2024 20:00	Marotaola	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 20:00	Anadramy Nord	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 20:00	Mangolovolo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 05:00	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.2
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 17:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Mutiba	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 09:00	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 09:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 01:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Caliua	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Raraga	Mozambique	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 19:00	Morombe	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 18:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 18:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	03 Jan 2024 18:00	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 09:00	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.1
	31 Dec 2023 23:00	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 00:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	01 Jan 2024 06:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.